AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Mar 28, 2026 05:28 UTC
#1 · Score 949

Musk Net Worth Target Unlikely 马斯克净资产目标难达

1% -94.5%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?

The probability for Elon Musk's net worth to reach $660b-$670b by March 31 plummeted by 94.5% to 1%, as recent headlines about a potential $75 billion SpaceX IPO and a $20 billion chip plant failed to indicate an immediate, massive wealth surge by the deadline. 埃隆·马斯克净资产在3月31日前达到6600亿至6700亿美元的概率暴跌94.5%至1%，因为近期关于SpaceX潜在750亿美元IPO和200亿美元芯片厂的报道未能预示截止日期前财富会立即大幅增长。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX $75B IPO target is a future event.
  • Musk's current net worth far below target.
  • No immediate catalyst for massive wealth surge.
  • SpaceX 750亿美元IPO是未来事件。
  • 马斯克当前净资产远低于目标。
  • 缺乏数百亿财富即时增长催化剂。
This reflects market skepticism on rapid, unprecedented wealth accumulation, even for high-growth ventures like SpaceX, within short timeframes. 这反映了市场对即使是SpaceX等高增长企业，其财富在短时间内实现前所未有增长的怀疑。
Vol 24h: $11,824 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden, massive re-valuation of Tesla or SpaceX before March 31 could push his net worth into the target range. 3月31日前特斯拉或SpaceX估值突然暴涨，可能将马斯克净资产推入目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 SpaceX IPO is a future event, and no other immediate catalyst exists to add hundreds of billions to his net worth by March 31. SpaceX IPO是未来事件，且3月31日前无其他即时催化剂能使其净资产增加数千亿。
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500
#2 · Score 459

NVIDIA $280 March Target Probability Zeroes 英伟达三月触及280美元概率归零

0% -45.5%

Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March?

The probability of NVIDIA reaching $280 in March has plummeted to 0%, reflecting the rapidly closing window for such a significant price movement. This sharp decline is primarily driven by NVIDIA's sustained strong stock performance, consistently trading well above $800 throughout the month. 英伟达三月触及280美元的概率已跌至0%，反映出实现如此大幅价格变动的窗口迅速关闭。这一急剧下降主要源于英伟达本月股价持续强劲，始终远高于800美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • March end approaching, leaving no time for a drastic price fall.
  • NVIDIA's stock consistently traded above $800-$900 in March.
  • No major negative catalysts emerged to trigger a crash.
  • Positive news like Reflection AI valuation reinforces strength.
  • 三月临近尾声，股价大幅下跌时间不足。
  • 英伟达股价三月持续在800-900美元上方交易。
  • 未出现引发股价暴跌的重大负面催化剂。
  • Reflection AI估值等利好消息增强市场信心。
This market outcome signifies strong investor confidence in NVIDIA's current high valuation and its resilience against a catastrophic short-term decline. 这一市场结果表明投资者对英伟达当前高估值充满信心，认为其短期内不太可能出现灾难性下跌。
Vol 24h: $4,307 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 An unforeseen, severe market correction or company-specific crisis could trigger a sharp decline towards $280. 突发严重市场回调或公司特定危机可能引发股价急剧跌向280美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 NVIDIA's robust AI chip demand and strong financial performance will keep its stock price far above $280. 英伟达强劲的AI芯片需求和良好财务表现将使其股价远高于280美元。
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500
#3 · Score 221

Weinstein Prison Time Odds Rise 韦恩斯坦入狱几率大增

26% -21.7%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

The probability of Harvey Weinstein receiving no prison time plummeted by 21.7% to 26%, primarily driven by reports of his disruptive behavior. This significant drop follows news that Weinstein missed a court hearing after throwing a fit ahead of his third NYC sex crimes trial. 哈维·韦恩斯坦免于入狱的概率骤降21.7%至26%，主要原因是其扰乱法庭的行为。据报道，韦恩斯坦在第三次纽约性犯罪审判前大发脾气并缺席庭审。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Weinstein missed court hearing.
  • Reported 'fit' ahead of NYC trial.
  • 韦恩斯坦缺席庭审。
  • 纽约审判前被曝“大发脾气”。
This case continues to highlight the legal consequences for powerful figures accused of sexual misconduct, influencing public perception of justice. 此案持续凸显对被控性行为不端的权势人物的法律后果，影响公众对司法的看法。
Vol 24h: $12,827 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A successful appeal or unexpected legal technicality could still lead to a non-custodial sentence for Weinstein. 成功的上诉或意想不到的法律技术问题仍可能导致韦恩斯坦获得非监禁判决。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 His recent disruptive court behavior and ongoing legal issues make a prison sentence highly probable. 他最近在法庭上的扰乱行为及持续的法律问题使得入狱判决可能性极高。
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500
#4 · Score 148

Weinstein's Sentencing Probability Drops 温斯坦判刑概率下降

6% -14.5%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Current probability of Weinstein receiving less than 5 years is at 6%, down 14.5%. His recent court behavior and missed hearings may indicate a lack of cooperation, influencing perceptions of leniency. 温斯坦被判少于5年监禁的概率为6%，下降14.5%。他最近在法庭上的行为和缺席听证会可能表明缺乏合作，影响了宽大处理的看法。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Weinstein's erratic behavior before court hearings
  • Recent legal outcomes in similar cases
  • Public and media scrutiny of Weinstein's actions
  • 温斯坦在法庭前的异常行为
  • 类似案件的近期法律结果
  • 公众和媒体对温斯坦行为的审视
The outcome of Weinstein's trial could set precedents for future sexual assault cases, impacting public perception and legal standards. 温斯坦案件的结果可能为未来性侵犯案件设定先例，影响公众认知和法律标准。
Vol 24h: $669 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Weinstein's defense successfully argues for leniency based on mental health, the probability may increase. 如果温斯坦的辩护成功主张心理健康因素，概率可能会上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Increased public outrage and legal precedent for harsher sentences could lead to a longer sentence. 公众愤怒加剧和对更严厉判决的法律先例可能导致更长的刑期。
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500
#5 · Score 110

Silver $120 Target Fades 白银120美元目标渐远

20% -10.6%

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

The probability of Silver (SI) hitting $120 by end of June has sharply declined by 10.6% to 20%. This movement is primarily driven by market participants recalibrating expectations for Fed rate cuts and silver's recent price consolidation. 白银（SI）在六月底前触及120美元的概率在24小时内骤降10.6%至20%。此变动主要源于市场对美联储降息预期的重新评估以及白银近期价格的盘整。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Delayed Fed rate cut expectations due to sticky inflation.
  • Silver price consolidation below key resistance levels.
  • Strengthening US Dollar reduces commodity appeal.
  • 通胀持续导致美联储降息预期推迟。
  • 白银价格在关键阻力位下方盘整。
  • 美元走强降低大宗商品吸引力。
This market reflects broader investor sentiment on precious metals as an inflation hedge and safe haven, influenced by global monetary policy and economic stability. 该市场反映了投资者对贵金属作为通胀对冲和避险资产的广泛情绪，受全球货币政策和经济稳定影响。
Vol 24h: $4,428 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating geopolitical tensions or an unexpected dovish Fed pivot could ignite a rapid silver rally towards $120. 地缘政治紧张局势升级或美联储意外转向鸽派，可能迅速推动白银飙升至120美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent high inflation leading to hawkish Fed policy strengthens the dollar, capping silver's upside potential. 持续高通胀导致美联储采取鹰派政策，美元走强将限制白银上涨空间。
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500
#6 · Score 79

S&P 500 Faces Uncertainty Amid Geopolitical Tensions 标普500面临地缘政治不确定性

0% -7.5%

S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?

The S&P 500's probability of hitting an all-time high by March 2026 dropped to 0% following geopolitical tensions. Trump's delayed military action against Iran has caused market instability, contributing to a 7.5% decline in the probability. 由于地缘政治紧张局势，标普500在2026年3月前创下历史新高的概率降至0%。特朗普推迟对伊朗的军事行动导致市场不稳定，概率下降7.5%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump delays military action against Iran
  • S&P 500 reports fifth consecutive quarter of growth
  • Small-cap stocks outperforming large caps
  • 特朗普推迟对伊朗的军事行动
  • 标普500连续五个季度增长
  • 小盘股表现优于大盘股
Geopolitical tensions can lead to increased market volatility, affecting investor confidence and economic stability. 地缘政治紧张局势可能导致市场波动加剧，影响投资者信心和经济稳定。
Vol 24h: $21,413 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If geopolitical tensions ease and corporate earnings continue strong, the S&P 500 could rally significantly. 如果地缘政治紧张局势缓解，企业盈利持续强劲，标普500可能大幅反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty could prevent the S&P 500 from reaching new highs. 地缘政治风险加剧和经济不确定性可能阻止标普500创下新高。
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500
#7 · Score 74

IPO Market Rebounds, Boosts Freddie Mac Prospects IPO市场复苏，利好房地美上市

26% +7.0%

Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?

The probability of a Freddie Mac IPO before 2027 surged to 26% (+7.0%), primarily driven by renewed optimism for the broader IPO market. News of SpaceX actively preparing for its initial public offering, including investor briefings and retail allocation discussions, signals a robust environment for new listings. 房地美2027年前IPO的概率升至26%（+7.0%），主要受整体IPO市场乐观情绪回升推动。SpaceX积极筹备上市，包括投资者简报会和零售配股讨论，预示着新股发行环境强劲。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX IPO preparations signal strong market.
  • General IPO market rebound after three years.
  • Increased investor appetite for new listings.
  • SpaceX上市准备预示市场强劲。
  • 整体IPO市场三年后反弹。
  • 投资者对新股需求增加。
A Freddie Mac IPO would signify a major step in privatizing a key housing finance entity, potentially reshaping the mortgage market and government's role. 房地美IPO将是住房金融实体私有化的重要一步，可能重塑抵押贷款市场和政府角色。
Vol 24h: $4,970 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A strong overall IPO market, exemplified by SpaceX's progress, creates a favorable environment for Freddie Mac to go public. 整体IPO市场强劲，如SpaceX进展所示，为房地美上市创造有利环境。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising mortgage rates due to geopolitical tensions could dampen investor interest in a housing finance IPO. 地缘政治紧张导致抵押贷款利率上升，可能降低投资者对住房金融IPO的兴趣。
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500
#8 · Score 68

Tariff Rate Probability Drops Significantly 关税率概率大幅下降

2% -6.5%

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?

The probability of U.S. tariffs on China being between 15% and 25% has fallen to 2%. Key driver includes Navarro's comments indicating a potential tariff increase to 15%, but market skepticism remains high. 美国对中国的关税在15%到25%之间的概率降至2%。核心驱动因素包括纳瓦罗关于可能将关税提高到15%的评论，但市场怀疑仍然很高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Navarro's statement on raising tariffs to 15%
  • Current tariff rate remains at 10%
  • Market reaction to ongoing trade tensions
  • 纳瓦罗关于提高关税至15%的声明
  • 当前关税率仍为10%
  • 市场对贸易紧张局势的反应
Tariff rates significantly impact trade relations and economic stability between the U.S. and China, influencing global markets. 关税率对美中贸易关系和经济稳定性有重大影响，进而影响全球市场。
Vol 24h: $2,079 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Trump follows through on Navarro's comments, tariffs could rise, increasing the probability. 如果特朗普兑现纳瓦罗的评论，关税可能上升，从而提高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Skepticism about actual implementation of tariff increases could keep the probability low. 对关税增加实际实施的怀疑可能使概率保持在低位。
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500
#9 · Score 62

Analyze Gold Price Movement 分析黄金价格走势

30% -5.8%

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?

Gold's probability dropped to 30% as inflation data showed signs of stabilization, reducing safe-haven demand. Additionally, recent Federal Reserve comments hinted at potential interest rate hikes. 由于通胀数据稳定，黄金概率降至30%，安全避险需求减少。此外，美联储近期表态暗示可能加息。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Inflation data shows signs of stabilization
  • Federal Reserve hints at interest rate hikes
  • Strengthening US dollar impacts gold prices
  • 通胀数据出现稳定迹象
  • 美联储暗示可能加息
  • 美元走强影响黄金价格
Gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Changes in interest rates and the dollar's strength can significantly influence its price. 黄金通常被视为对抗通胀和经济不确定性的避险资产。利率和美元强度的变化会显著影响其价格。
Vol 24h: $46,295 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If geopolitical tensions escalate, gold could surge as a safe-haven asset. 如果地缘政治紧张局势升级，黄金作为避险资产可能会飙升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued economic recovery may lead to lower demand for gold as an investment. 持续的经济复苏可能导致黄金作为投资的需求降低。
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500
#10 · Score 59

Netanyahu's Leadership Faces Increased Scrutiny 内塔尼亚胡领导地位面临更多审视

48% -5.5%

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Netanyahu's probability of leaving office by 2026 dropped to 48% amid political turmoil. Recent headlines highlight challenges, including potential election manipulation and military conflicts with Iran. 内塔尼亚胡在2026年前离职的概率降至48%，政治动荡加剧。近期头条突显了选举操控和与伊朗的军事冲突等挑战。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Concerns over Netanyahu's election committee's power
  • Military escalation with Iran affecting public opinion
  • Criticism from far-right allies regarding Netanyahu's leadership
  • 对内塔尼亚胡选举委员会权力的担忧
  • 与伊朗的军事升级影响公众舆论
  • 来自极右翼盟友对内塔尼亚胡领导的批评
The stability of Netanyahu's government impacts Israeli politics and regional security dynamics significantly. 内塔尼亚胡政府的稳定性对以色列政治和地区安全动态影响深远。
Vol 24h: $19,574 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Netanyahu successfully navigates military conflicts and maintains support, his position could strengthen. 如果内塔尼亚胡成功应对军事冲突并保持支持，他的地位可能会加强。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Increased public discontent and political challenges could lead to his ousting before 2026. 公众不满加剧和政治挑战可能导致他在2026年前被迫下台。
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500
#11 · Score 54

Kon Knueppel's Rookie of the Year Surge Kon Knueppel新秀年概率上升

72% +5.1%

Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Kon Knueppel's probability for Rookie of the Year has risen to 72%, driven by impressive preseason performances and positive scouting reports. His standout skills have garnered attention from analysts and fans alike. Kon Knueppel的新秀年概率已升至72%，得益于他在季前赛的出色表现和积极的评估报告。他的突出技能引起了分析师和球迷的关注。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Impressive preseason performances by Kon Knueppel
  • Positive scouting reports from analysts
  • Increased media coverage highlighting his skills
  • Kon Knueppel在季前赛中的出色表现
  • 分析师的积极评估报告
  • 媒体对他技能的增加报道
This probability shift indicates growing confidence in Knueppel's potential impact in the NBA. A strong start could solidify his position as a frontrunner. 这一概率变化表明对Knueppel在NBA潜在影响的信心增强。强劲的开局可能巩固他作为领跑者的地位。
Vol 24h: $4,559 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Knueppel continues to excel in preseason games, his Rookie of the Year odds could rise further. 如果Knueppel在季前赛中继续表现出色，他的新秀年赔率可能进一步上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Injuries or underperformance during the regular season could significantly lower his chances. 常规赛期间的伤病或表现不佳可能会显著降低他的机会。
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500
#12 · Score 53

Cepeda's Momentum Grows Ahead of Election 塞佩达的选举势头增强

72% +5.0%

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Iván Cepeda Castro's probability of winning the first round has increased to 72% due to rising public support and favorable polling data. Recent polls indicate a significant shift in voter sentiment towards his campaign. 伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗赢得第一轮的概率上升至72%，因公众支持和民调数据向好。最近的民调显示选民情绪向他的竞选活动发生显著转变。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Recent polls show increased support for Cepeda
  • Public sentiment shifting towards progressive candidates
  • Increased media coverage highlighting his policies
  • 最近民调显示塞佩达支持率上升
  • 公众情绪向进步候选人倾斜
  • 媒体对其政策的关注增加
Cepeda's potential victory could reshape Colombia's political landscape, influencing future policies and governance. His rise reflects broader trends in Latin American politics favoring progressive movements. 塞佩达的潜在胜利可能重塑哥伦比亚的政治格局，影响未来政策和治理。他的崛起反映出拉美政治中进步运动的广泛趋势。
Vol 24h: $880 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Cepeda continues to gain traction in polls, his probability of winning could exceed 80%. 如果塞佩达在民调中继续上升，他的胜算可能超过80%。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden scandal or negative news could significantly undermine his campaign and support. 突发丑闻或负面新闻可能会显著削弱他的竞选和支持。
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500
#13 · Score 49

Flagg's Rookie of the Year Odds Drop 弗拉格新秀年度奖概率下降

26% -4.5%

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Cooper Flagg's probability of winning NBA Rookie of the Year has decreased to 26%. This decline follows recent performances overshadowed by Kon Knueppel's rising star status at Duke. 库珀·弗拉格赢得NBA新秀年度奖的概率降至26%。这一下降是由于最近的表现被杜克大学的康·克纽佩尔的崛起所掩盖。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Kon Knueppel's strong performance at Duke
  • Recent headlines focusing on other rookies
  • Flagg's inconsistent game performance
  • 康·克纽佩尔在杜克的强劲表现
  • 近期头条聚焦于其他新秀
  • 弗拉格的表现不稳定
The Rookie of the Year award can significantly impact a player's marketability and future contracts. Flagg's declining odds may affect his perceived value in the league. 新秀年度奖对球员的市场价值和未来合同有重要影响。弗拉格的概率下降可能会影响他在联盟中的认可度。
Vol 24h: $3,686 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Flagg consistently performs well and outshines other rookies, his odds could rebound significantly. 如果弗拉格持续表现出色并超越其他新秀，他的概率可能会显著回升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued strong performances from competitors like Knueppel could further diminish Flagg's chances. 像克纽佩尔这样的竞争者持续强劲表现可能进一步削弱弗拉格的机会。
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500
#14 · Score 45

Market Probability Declines Post-Launch 市场概率发布后下降

8% -4.0%

Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?

The probability of FDV exceeding $200M dropped to 8% after launch. This decline is attributed to initial trading volume being lower than expected. FDV超过2亿的概率在发布后降至8%。这一下降归因于初始交易量低于预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Initial trading volume disappointing
  • Lack of promotional activity
  • Market competition from similar projects
  • 初始交易量令人失望
  • 缺乏宣传活动
  • 市场上类似项目竞争激烈
The performance of new projects can significantly impact investor confidence and future funding opportunities. 新项目的表现会显著影响投资者信心和未来融资机会。
Vol 24h: $48,173 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong community engagement and marketing could rapidly increase visibility and trading volume. 强大的社区参与和营销可能迅速提高知名度和交易量。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued low trading activity may lead to diminished investor interest and further declines. 持续低迷的交易活动可能导致投资者兴趣减弱，进一步下降。
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#15 · Score 44

Fed Rate Cut Probability Drops 美联储降息概率下降

2% -4.0%

Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?

Current probability of a Fed rate cut by April 2026 is 2%, down 4% in 24 hours. Rising inflation fears, particularly from surging energy prices, have shifted market expectations towards potential rate hikes. 到2026年4月美联储降息的概率为2%，在24小时内下降4%。能源价格飙升引发的通胀担忧使市场预期转向潜在的加息。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Surging energy prices raise inflation concerns
  • Traders now favor interest rate hikes in 2026
  • Economists reject market's rate cut predictions
  • 能源价格上涨引发通胀担忧
  • 交易者现在倾向于2026年加息
  • 经济学家拒绝市场降息预测
The shift in probability reflects broader economic conditions, influencing borrowing costs and investment strategies. Understanding these trends is crucial for market participants. 概率的变化反映了更广泛的经济状况，影响借贷成本和投资策略。理解这些趋势对市场参与者至关重要。
Vol 24h: $24,551 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If inflation stabilizes and economic growth slows, the Fed may reconsider rate cuts sooner than expected. 如果通胀稳定且经济增长放缓，美联储可能会比预期更早考虑降息。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued inflation pressures could lead to sustained rate hikes, reducing the likelihood of cuts. 持续的通胀压力可能导致加息，降低降息的可能性。
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#16 · Score 44

Escalating Tensions in Middle East 中东紧张局势升级

13% +4.0%

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

The probability of an Israeli strike on Yemen rose to 13% amid increasing hostilities. Key drivers include Iranian attacks on US bases and Houthi threats to join the conflict. 以色列对也门的攻击概率上升至13%，因敌对局势加剧。核心驱动因素包括伊朗对美军基地的攻击和胡塞武装的威胁。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iranian attack on US troops in Saudi Arabia
  • IDF strikes targeting Iranian positions in Tehran
  • Houthis threatening to escalate conflict in Yemen
  • 伊朗对沙特美军的攻击
  • 以色列国防军打击德黑兰的伊朗目标
  • 胡塞武装威胁升级冲突
Rising tensions could destabilize the region further and impact global oil markets. A military strike could draw in more international actors. 紧张局势上升可能进一步破坏地区稳定，并影响全球石油市场。军事打击可能引发更多国际参与。
Vol 24h: $15,827 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased Iranian aggression may prompt Israel to take preemptive military action in Yemen. 伊朗的攻击性行为可能促使以色列在也门采取先发制人的军事行动。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 International diplomatic efforts may de-escalate tensions, reducing the likelihood of an Israeli strike. 国际外交努力可能缓解紧张局势，降低以色列攻击的可能性。
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#17 · Score 38

Paloma Valencia's Odds Decline 帕洛玛·巴伦西亚的胜算下降

41% -3.5%

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Paloma Valencia's probability of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election has decreased to 41%, driven by recent unfavorable polling data. The political landscape is shifting, with emerging candidates gaining traction. 帕洛玛·巴伦西亚在2026年哥伦比亚总统选举中的胜算降至41%，主要受近期不利民调数据影响。政治格局正在变化，新兴候选人逐渐获得关注。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Recent polls show declining support for Valencia
  • Emerging candidates gaining popularity in Colombia
  • Negative media coverage affecting Valencia's image
  • 近期民调显示巴伦西亚支持率下降
  • 新兴候选人在哥伦比亚受欢迎
  • 负面媒体报道影响巴伦西亚形象
The outcome of the election could significantly impact Colombia's political direction and governance. A decline in Valencia's odds may indicate a broader shift in voter sentiment. 选举结果可能对哥伦比亚的政治方向和治理产生重大影响。巴伦西亚胜算的下降可能表明选民情绪的更广泛变化。
Vol 24h: $765 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Valencia can regain support through effective campaigning, her odds could improve significantly. 如果巴伦西亚通过有效的竞选活动重新获得支持，她的胜算可能会显著提高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued negative trends in polling and media could further diminish her chances of winning. 持续的民调和媒体负面趋势可能进一步削弱她的胜算。
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#18 · Score 37

Trump's Support for Putin's Ally Sparks Interest 特朗普支持普京盟友引发关注

2% +3.1%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?

The probability of a Trump-Putin meeting has increased to 2%, driven by Trump's endorsement of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. This endorsement may signal a potential diplomatic alignment that could facilitate future meetings. 特朗普与普京会面的概率上升至2%，主要受特朗普对匈牙利总理欧尔班的支持驱动。此举可能预示着未来会晤的外交对接。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump endorses Viktor Orbán, a Putin ally
  • Trump's upcoming meeting with Xi in China
  • Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Russia
  • 特朗普支持普京盟友欧尔班
  • 特朗普即将在中国与习会面
  • 伊朗与俄罗斯的地缘政治紧张局势
The dynamics between Trump, Putin, and their allies could reshape international relations, especially in Eastern Europe. 特朗普、普京及其盟友之间的动态可能重塑国际关系，尤其是在东欧地区。
Vol 24h: $104,261 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased collaboration between Trump and Putin could lead to a meeting in a neutral country. 特朗普与普京之间的合作增加可能促成在中立国的会晤。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Trump's focus on China may divert attention from engaging with Putin. 特朗普对中国的关注可能分散与普京接触的注意力。
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500
#19 · Score 35

U.S.-Iran Tensions Shift Amid Negotiations 美伊紧张局势变化

62% -3.0%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

The probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran has decreased to 62% due to recent diplomatic progress. Key events include Trump's extension of a pause on strikes and reports of no U.S. troop buildup. 美国入侵伊朗的概率降至62%，因近期外交进展。关键事件包括特朗普延长对伊朗的攻击暂停和无美军增兵报告。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump extends pause on strikes against Iran
  • Ret. Lt Col. reports no U.S. troop buildup
  • Negotiations between U.S. and Iran show progress
  • 特朗普延长对伊朗的攻击暂停
  • 退役中校报告无美军增兵
  • 美伊谈判显示进展
These developments indicate a potential de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, affecting regional stability and global oil markets. 这些发展表明美伊紧张局势可能缓解，影响地区稳定和全球石油市场。
Vol 24h: $63,276 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If negotiations succeed, the likelihood of invasion could drop significantly, boosting stability. 如果谈判成功，入侵的可能性将显著降低，促进稳定。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Failure of talks may lead to military action, increasing the probability of invasion. 谈判失败可能导致军事行动，增加入侵的概率。
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#20 · Score 34

Google's Stock Probability Rises 谷歌股票概率上升

100% +3.0%

Will Google dip to $275 in March?

Google's stock probability to dip to $275 has surged to 100% due to recent analyst comments. Needham's Laura Martin suggested that current weakness in Google presents a buying opportunity. 谷歌股票跌至275美元的概率已升至100%，因分析师评论影响。Needham的Laura Martin表示，谷歌当前的疲软是买入机会。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Laura Martin's bullish comments on Google
  • Recent stock price movements indicating volatility
  • Market reactions to broader tech sector performance
  • Laura Martin对谷歌的看涨评论
  • 近期股价波动的市场反应
  • 科技行业整体表现的市场反应
This situation reflects investor confidence and potential recovery signs in the tech sector, impacting overall market dynamics. 这一情况反映了投资者信心和科技行业潜在的复苏迹象，影响整体市场动态。
Vol 24h: $3,351 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Google demonstrates strong earnings growth, the probability of a dip could decrease significantly. 如果谷歌展现出强劲的盈利增长，跌至275美元的概率可能显著降低。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued negative sentiment in the tech sector could push Google below $275. 科技行业持续的负面情绪可能导致谷歌跌破275美元。
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#21 · Score 33

Cavaliers' Playoff Hopes Strengthen 骑士季后赛希望增强

20% +3.0%

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

The Cavaliers' probability rose to 20% after winning four consecutive games. Their recent performance against the Heat, despite a prior loss, indicates potential playoff momentum. 骑士在连胜四场后，概率上升至20%。尽管之前输给热火，但他们的表现显示出季后赛的潜力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Cavaliers won four consecutive games
  • Recent game against Heat showed resilience
  • Cavaliers currently fourth in Eastern Conference
  • 骑士连胜四场
  • 对热火的比赛表现出韧性
  • 骑士目前在东部第四
The Cavaliers' improved performance could enhance their playoff positioning and attract more betting interest, impacting market dynamics. 骑士的表现改善可能提升他们的季后赛排名，吸引更多投注兴趣，影响市场动态。
Vol 24h: $1,070 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If the Cavaliers continue their winning streak, their chances of reaching the finals will significantly increase. 如果骑士继续连胜，他们进入决赛的机会将显著增加。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Defensive issues could lead to losses against stronger teams, reducing their playoff viability. 防守问题可能导致对强队的失利，降低他们的季后赛竞争力。
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#22 · Score 28

Alphabet's Market Cap Uncertainty Alphabet市值不确定性

99% -2.5%

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Alphabet's probability of being the third-largest company dropped to 99% due to a 2.3% slump after YouTube's liability verdict. This decline reflects investor concerns over regulatory risks impacting Alphabet's growth. 由于YouTube的责任裁决，Alphabet成为第三大公司的概率降至99%，股价下跌2.3%。这一下滑反映了投资者对监管风险影响Alphabet增长的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • YouTube found liable in addiction trial
  • Wells Fargo's bullish 40% growth prediction
  • Recent share price decline of 2.3%
  • YouTube在成瘾审判中被判有责
  • 富国银行预测40%的增长
  • 最近股价下跌2.3%
Alphabet's market position is critical for investor confidence, influencing tech sector valuations. Regulatory challenges could hinder its growth trajectory. Alphabet的市场地位对投资者信心至关重要，影响科技行业估值。监管挑战可能阻碍其增长轨迹。
Vol 24h: $2,631 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Alphabet capitalizes on AI leadership, its market cap could significantly increase. 如果Alphabet能利用AI领导地位，其市值可能大幅增加。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued regulatory scrutiny could lead to further declines in Alphabet's stock price. 持续的监管审查可能导致Alphabet股价进一步下跌。
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#23 · Score 28

Rubio Gains Ground Amid Foreign Policy Focus 鲁比奥因外交政策受关注而上升

21% +2.4%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Marco Rubio's probability for the 2028 Republican nomination rose to 21%, driven by his active role in G-7 discussions on the Iran war. His assertive stance may resonate with Republican voters prioritizing strong foreign policy. 鲁比奥在2028年共和党提名中的概率上升至21%，主要受他在G-7讨论伊朗战争中的积极参与推动。其坚定立场可能与重视强硬外交政策的共和党选民产生共鸣。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Rubio's engagement with G-7 diplomats on Iran
  • Increased media attention on Rubio's foreign policy
  • Potential competition from Rand Paul for nomination
  • 鲁比奥与G-7外交官讨论伊朗
  • 媒体对鲁比奥外交政策的关注增加
  • 兰德·保罗可能的提名竞争
Rubio's foreign policy actions could strengthen his appeal among Republican voters, impacting his nomination chances. A strong foreign policy stance is often crucial in primaries. 鲁比奥的外交政策行动可能增强他在共和党选民中的吸引力，影响提名机会。强有力的外交政策立场在初选中通常至关重要。
Vol 24h: $67,964 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Rubio successfully navigates foreign policy challenges, his visibility and support could significantly increase. 如果鲁比奥成功应对外交政策挑战，他的知名度和支持可能显著增加。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Competition from figures like Rand Paul could dilute Rubio's support and hinder his nomination prospects. 像兰德·保罗这样的竞争者可能会稀释鲁比奥的支持，阻碍他的提名前景。
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500
#24 · Score 28

Abelardo's Presidential Odds Decline 阿贝拉多的总统机会下降

14% -2.5%

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Abelardo de la Espriella's probability of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election has dropped to 14%, down 2.5% in 24 hours. This decline follows a lack of significant media coverage and political endorsements, which are crucial for building momentum. 阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉在2026年哥伦比亚总统选举中的胜率降至14%，24小时内下降2.5%。这一下降源于缺乏重要媒体报道和政治支持，这对建立势头至关重要。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Limited media coverage on Abelardo's campaign
  • Absence of key political endorsements
  • Recent polls showing stronger candidates emerging
  • 阿贝拉多竞选活动的媒体覆盖有限
  • 缺乏关键政治支持
  • 近期民调显示更强候选人出现
The probability shift indicates potential challenges for Abelardo's campaign, reflecting broader trends in Colombian politics as the election approaches. 概率变化表明阿贝拉多的竞选面临潜在挑战，反映出哥伦比亚政治在选举临近时的更广泛趋势。
Vol 24h: $1,792 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Abelardo secures influential endorsements, his chances could significantly improve. 如果阿贝拉多获得有影响力的支持，他的胜算可能会显著提高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued lack of visibility and support may further diminish his electoral prospects. 持续缺乏曝光和支持可能进一步削弱他的选举前景。
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500
#25 · Score 26

Spurs' Title Odds Improve After Wemby Praise 马刺夺冠概率上升因温班亚马赞誉

23% +2.1%

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

The Spurs' probability of winning the Western Conference Finals rose to 23% after positive assessments of Victor Wembanyama's performance. NBA scouts highlighted Wemby's 'unguardable' skills, boosting confidence in the Spurs' title chances. 马刺赢得西部决赛的概率上升至23%，因温班亚马表现受到积极评价。NBA球探称温班亚马‘无法防守’，增强了对马刺夺冠的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Wembanyama praised as 'unguardable' by scouts
  • Spurs improving their record against top teams
  • Increased focus on defensive capabilities
  • 球探称温班亚马‘无法防守’
  • 马刺对顶级球队的战绩改善
  • 加强防守能力的关注
The Spurs' potential success hinges on Wembanyama's development, which could reshape the Western Conference landscape. 马刺的成功依赖于温班亚马的发展，这可能改变西部的格局。
Vol 24h: $75,144 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Wembanyama continues to dominate, the Spurs could secure a top playoff seed. 如果温班亚马继续主导比赛，马刺有望获得季后赛的高种子。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Inconsistencies in team performance could hinder their playoff success. 球队表现不稳定可能会阻碍他们的季后赛成功。
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500
#26 · Score 26

Oviedo's 2026 Presidential Bid Gains Traction 奥维耶多2026总统竞选初现势头

0% +2.2%

Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Juan Daniel Oviedo's probability to win the 2026 Colombian presidential election rose to 2.2% from 0%, indicating emerging, albeit nascent, market interest. This movement occurred despite no direct supporting news in the provided headlines, suggesting early speculative trading or unconfirmed local developments. 胡安·丹尼尔·奥维耶多赢得2026年哥伦比亚总统大选的概率从0%升至2.2%，表明市场对其初步兴趣。尽管所提供新闻中没有直接支持事件，此变动可能源于早期投机性交易或未证实的地方动态。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Emerging speculation on Oviedo's potential candidacy
  • Initial market bets by long-shot speculators
  • Unconfirmed local political discussions or endorsements
  • 对奥维耶多潜在候选资格的猜测浮现
  • 早期投机者对黑马候选人的押注
  • 未证实的地方政治讨论或支持
This slight increase from zero signals that Oviedo is now on the market's radar, potentially indicating an upcoming formal announcement or a shift in political discourse regarding potential contenders for the 2026 election. 这一从零开始的微小增长表明奥维耶多已进入市场视野，可能预示着即将正式宣布参选或2026年总统竞选潜在竞争者讨论的变化。
Vol 24h: $7,482 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Oviedo could gain significant public support if he formally announces his candidacy and presents a compelling platform. 若奥维耶多正式宣布参选并提出引人注目的政纲，他可能获得显著的公众支持。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Without strong political backing or widespread recognition, Oviedo's campaign may struggle to gain momentum. 若缺乏强大政治支持或广泛认知，奥维耶多竞选活动恐难以获得动力。
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500
#27 · Score 25

Iran Regime Stability Under Scrutiny 伊朗政权稳定性受关注

20% +2.0%

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

The current probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is 20%, up 2% due to recent military tensions. Reports indicate that the Israeli military doubts the effectiveness of the ongoing war in toppling the regime. 当前伊朗政权在6月30日前倒台的概率为20%，上升2%，因近期军事紧张局势。报告指出以色列军方对当前战争能否推翻政权表示怀疑。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Israeli military expresses doubts about regime change
  • Iran's toughened negotiating stance with the US
  • Recent military actions may stabilize the regime
  • 以色列军方对政权更迭表示怀疑
  • 伊朗对美国的谈判立场变得强硬
  • 近期军事行动可能稳定政权
The stability of the Iranian regime impacts regional security and international relations, particularly with the US and Israel. 伊朗政权的稳定性影响地区安全和国际关系，尤其是与美国和以色列的关系。
Vol 24h: $194,715 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased internal dissent could lead to a rapid decline in regime support, raising the probability of its fall. 内部不满情绪加剧可能导致政权支持迅速下降，提高倒台概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The regime's ability to leverage military conflict may strengthen its hold on power, reducing chances of collapse. 政权利用军事冲突的能力可能增强其掌控力，降低倒台机会。
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500
#28 · Score 25

Rising Support for Péter Magyar 佩特·马加尔支持上升

64% +2.0%

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Péter Magyar's probability increased to 64% amid EU hopes for change in Hungary. Recent charges against journalists highlight government tensions and potential voter backlash. 佩特·马加尔的概率上升至64%，因欧盟对匈牙利变革的期望。最近对记者的指控凸显了政府紧张局势和潜在的选民反弹。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • EU leaders' optimism for political change in Hungary
  • Charges against journalists signal government repression
  • Trump's support for Orban may alienate voters
  • 欧盟领导人对匈牙利政治变革的乐观
  • 对记者的指控显示政府压制
  • 特朗普对欧尔班的支持可能疏远选民
The outcome of the election could shift Hungary's alignment within the EU and impact regional stability. 选举结果可能改变匈牙利在欧盟中的立场，影响地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $93,082 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased public discontent with Orban's government could boost Magyar's chances significantly. 公众对欧尔班政府的不满增加可能显著提升马加尔的机会。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued government repression and foreign support for Orban may solidify his power. 持续的政府压制和对欧尔班的外部支持可能巩固他的权力。
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#29 · Score 25

Cornyn Gains Ground in Republican Primary Cornyn在共和党初选中获利

30% +2.0%

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

John Cornyn's probability of winning the 2026 Texas Republican Primary has increased to 30%, driven by 18 new endorsements from Texas Republicans. This momentum comes amid a favorable environment at CPAC, where Trump supporters are rallying. 约翰·科宁在2026年德克萨斯州共和党初选中的胜算上升至30%，因获得18位德州共和党的新支持。此势头源于CPAC大会上特朗普支持者的集结。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Cornyn received 18 new endorsements from Texas Republicans
  • CPAC event boosts visibility for Cornyn
  • Trump's influence remains strong in Texas politics
  • 科宁获得18位德州共和党的新支持
  • CPAC活动提升科宁的曝光率
  • 特朗普在德州政治中的影响力依然强大
The outcome of the primary could significantly impact the Republican party's strategy in Texas, a key state for national elections. 初选结果可能会显著影响共和党在德州的战略，这对全国选举至关重要。
Vol 24h: $59,550 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased endorsements and strong Trump support could propel Cornyn's chances higher. 增加的支持和强大的特朗普支持可能提升科宁的胜算。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Potential backlash from anti-establishment voters could undermine Cornyn's support. 反建制派选民的潜在反弹可能削弱科宁的支持。
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#30 · Score 24

Discord IPO Market Cap Probability Drops Discord IPO 市值概率下降

1% -2.0%

Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?

Discord's market cap probability fell to 1% amid rising focus on SpaceX's IPO. Recent headlines highlight SpaceX's potential $75 billion valuation, overshadowing Discord's prospects. 由于对 SpaceX IPO 的关注上升，Discord 的市场概率降至 1%。最近的头条突显了 SpaceX 可能的 750 亿美元估值，掩盖了 Discord 的前景。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX IPO excitement dominates market attention
  • Recent headlines emphasize SpaceX's potential valuation
  • Discord's IPO details remain unclear
  • SpaceX IPO 热潮主导市场关注
  • 最近头条强调 SpaceX 的潜在估值
  • Discord 的 IPO 细节仍不明确
The shift in focus to SpaceX could impact investor interest and valuations for other upcoming IPOs like Discord. 对 SpaceX 的关注转移可能影响投资者对其他即将上市公司如 Discord 的兴趣和估值。
Vol 24h: $30,889 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Discord's IPO generates significant hype, its market cap could exceed expectations. 如果 Discord 的 IPO 产生重大热度，其市场价值可能超出预期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued emphasis on SpaceX may lead to reduced investor interest in Discord's IPO. 对 SpaceX 的持续关注可能导致投资者对 Discord IPO 的兴趣降低。
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#31 · Score 24

Bitcoin Probability Rises Slightly 比特币概率小幅上升

34% +2.0%

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin's probability of hitting $100,000 has increased to 34% due to recent positive trading volume and institutional interest. Analysts noted a surge in retail investments following favorable regulatory discussions. 比特币达到$100,000的概率已升至34%，因近期交易量增加和机构兴趣上升。分析师指出，零售投资者在监管讨论利好的背景下涌入市场。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Increased trading volume in Bitcoin
  • Institutional interest from major firms
  • Positive regulatory discussions in key markets
  • 比特币交易量增加
  • 主要公司的机构兴趣
  • 关键市场的积极监管讨论
This shift indicates growing confidence in Bitcoin's future, potentially attracting more investors. A higher probability could lead to increased market activity and price volatility. 这一变化表明市场对比特币未来的信心增强，可能吸引更多投资者。更高的概率可能导致市场活动增加和价格波动。
Vol 24h: $30,046 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If institutional adoption continues, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 sooner than expected. 如果机构持续采用，比特币可能比预期更快达到$100,000。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Regulatory crackdowns or market corrections could significantly lower Bitcoin's price trajectory. 监管打击或市场调整可能显著降低比特币的价格走势。
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No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。